Ms Arie is right. Here are a few isolated epidemic areas. Try out vaccines. Not just in case Ebola becomes a pandemic, which does not seem likely: we have had a major exercise in tackling it, the Prime Minister himself watching it. This may well have been preceded by a TEWT.
We have to try it out, in case Ebola is used as an agent by unsocial elements abroad.
We also might remember that in the US, many years ago, a government scientist sent parcels containing pathogenic spores by post. At first foreigners were suspected.
Let us look back at the history. KNOWN outbreaks date back to 1976, hardly likely that the disease did not exist before that. Fruit bats must have been around there and eaten, for thousands of years. Could it be that there have been some changes, for example, in the "balance" between different viruses in the areas, leading to greater pathogenicity in the virus, or diminished resistance in the host?
Secondly, ALL the previous outbreaks, everywhere, were extinguished without the advanced epidemiological expertise residing, inter alia, in the US, UK, France. Is it not very likely that the current outbreaks will also flicker out?
If press reports are to be believed, Heathrow had a very laid back attitude to implementing screening. One journalist had to persuade the Screeners to screen him. Another, a lady, sailed through without being accosted. It has been reported that an immigration officer shook hands with an incomer BEFORE he was screened.
If screening is worth doing at all, it is worth doing well. In the days of small pox, I and my family would always have our smallpox certificates checked at Heathrow. Individuals arriving from infected countries, without a certificate and if symptom-free, were notified to the MOH ( and later his successor, the Proper Officer under the Local Government Act of 1972) for surveillance. Today, I do not even know who the Proper Officer is, for this purpose, in my area. There are numerous other airports, besides, Heathrow, flying to and from Mainland Europe. There are of course, also, numerous yachts sailing to and from our shores. Finally, there is an established "trade" in illegal migration.
The lax controls , ( despite the strident appeals for more money and more action by senior statesmen as well as the WHO) compel me to conclude that:
1. The Illness is not likely to become an epidemic in Europe.
2. A lot of the noise is meant to persuade the public that money is needed for improving health facilities in Africa.
3. That the good ship Argus is doing a worthwhile voyage ( I am already persuaded that our armed forces need to be trained in defensive techniques in biological war;-fare).
Is the virus mutating, becoming more easily transmissible? We do not know and our virologists are silent.
Rapid Response:
Ms Arie is right. Here are a few isolated epidemic areas. Try out vaccines. Not just in case Ebola becomes a pandemic, which does not seem likely: we have had a major exercise in tackling it, the Prime Minister himself watching it. This may well have been preceded by a TEWT.
We have to try it out, in case Ebola is used as an agent by unsocial elements abroad.
We also might remember that in the US, many years ago, a government scientist sent parcels containing pathogenic spores by post. At first foreigners were suspected.
Let us look back at the history. KNOWN outbreaks date back to 1976, hardly likely that the disease did not exist before that. Fruit bats must have been around there and eaten, for thousands of years. Could it be that there have been some changes, for example, in the "balance" between different viruses in the areas, leading to greater pathogenicity in the virus, or diminished resistance in the host?
Secondly, ALL the previous outbreaks, everywhere, were extinguished without the advanced epidemiological expertise residing, inter alia, in the US, UK, France. Is it not very likely that the current outbreaks will also flicker out?
If press reports are to be believed, Heathrow had a very laid back attitude to implementing screening. One journalist had to persuade the Screeners to screen him. Another, a lady, sailed through without being accosted. It has been reported that an immigration officer shook hands with an incomer BEFORE he was screened.
If screening is worth doing at all, it is worth doing well. In the days of small pox, I and my family would always have our smallpox certificates checked at Heathrow. Individuals arriving from infected countries, without a certificate and if symptom-free, were notified to the MOH ( and later his successor, the Proper Officer under the Local Government Act of 1972) for surveillance. Today, I do not even know who the Proper Officer is, for this purpose, in my area. There are numerous other airports, besides, Heathrow, flying to and from Mainland Europe. There are of course, also, numerous yachts sailing to and from our shores. Finally, there is an established "trade" in illegal migration.
The lax controls , ( despite the strident appeals for more money and more action by senior statesmen as well as the WHO) compel me to conclude that:
1. The Illness is not likely to become an epidemic in Europe.
2. A lot of the noise is meant to persuade the public that money is needed for improving health facilities in Africa.
3. That the good ship Argus is doing a worthwhile voyage ( I am already persuaded that our armed forces need to be trained in defensive techniques in biological war;-fare).
Is the virus mutating, becoming more easily transmissible? We do not know and our virologists are silent.
Competing interests: No competing interests