We need to separate “old” and “age”

Gloomy predictions about the social and economic impact of an ageing population are part of our accepted world view. They are used to pour cold water on aspirations for universal healthcare and to justify raising the statutory retirement age. But have we got the predictions wrong? Is the future rosier than we have been led to believe?

Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes think so. In their Analysis this week (doi:10.1136/bmj.f6598) they say that doomsday warnings of an ever growing elderly dependent population, with fewer and fewer people for them to depend on, are based on a flawed measure. The “old age dependency ratio” uses the statutory retirement age as a cut-off. It then divides adults into those above this age (dependent) and those below …